美国应充分理解中国崛起的现实（中英双语）
青岛希尼尔翻译咨询有限公司（www.sinosenior.com）整理发布 2015-11-11
青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com）2015年11月11日了解到：眼下中国对全球经济的影响力犹如全球经济对它的影响一样大，这是数世纪以来的头一次。未来数年，中国占全球收入、贸易和大宗商品需求的比例很可能达到三分之一到二分之一之间，同时，随着其在世界经济中的份额增加，中国的重要性只会不断攀升。For
the first time in centuries, China now affects the global economy as
much as it is affected by the global economy. In the years ahead, China
is likely to account for between a third and half of growth in global
incomes, trade and commodity demand, and its significance will only
increase as its share of the world economy rises.
I returned last week from a trip to China with the dispiriting
conclusion that the world lacks shared understandings regarding goals
for the evolution of the Chinese economy, the objectives of China policy
in the short and medium term, and the institutional structures needed to
manage both co-operation and inevitable tensions. President Xi Jinping
has rightly called for a “new form of great-power relationship”. But it
must be embedded in, if not a new international economic architecture,
then a substantially revised and updated one.
我上周结束中国之行时带回一个令人沮丧的结论——对于抱何种目标看待中国经济发展，对于中国的中短期政策目标，对于处理合作和不可避免的紧张局面所亟需的机构架构，全球缺乏共识。中国国家主席习近平呼吁建立“新型大国关系”是正确的。但是这种新型大国关系必须纳入经过大幅修改和升级、甚至是全新的国际经济架构之内。
The first issue on which clarity is required is whether it is the
objective of the US and the global community to see China succeed
economically as a support for global prosperity and a driver of positive
social and political change, or whether it is to contain and weaken the
country economically, so it has less capacity to mount global threats.
This is seen in Beijing as a live question, and is a matter of debate
beyond the shrill rhetoric of protectionists and politicians.
第一个应该明确的问题是，美国和全球社会的目标是看到中国作为全球繁荣的支撑力、社会和政治积极变革的推动力在经济上取得成功，还是从经济上遏制和削弱中国，从而降低中国对全球造成威胁的能力。这在北京看来是当前的重大问题，而不仅仅是保护主义者和政界人士的尖刻辩论。
The Council on Foreign Relations, hardly a source of xenophobic or
radical ideas, recently issued a report drafted by leading US diplomats
condemning American efforts to build up China within the international
economic order and calling for a “balancing strategy” that includes “new
preferential trading arrangements?.?.?.?that consciously exclude China”.
No small part of the case being made by the Obama administration for the
Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal involves the idea that it will
promote competitiveness vis-à-vis China and reduce China’s influence in
determining global trade rules. 很少出现排外或者激进想法的美国外交关系委员会(Council on
Foreign
Relations)，最近发表了一篇由美国高级外交官起草的报告，指责美国在国际经济秩序中扶植中国的努力，并呼吁采用“平衡策略”，包括“建立全新的特惠贸易安排……有意将中国排除在外”。在奥巴马当局为《跨太平洋伙伴关系》(TPP)贸易协定提出的支持性理由中，不少都涉及一种想法，即该协定将提升美国相对于中国的竞争力，并将削弱中国在决定全球贸易规则上的影响力。
The world cannot expect economic co-operation from Beijing if its
objective is to inhibit Chinese economic performance. As Mr Xi’s
rapturous recent reception in London illustrates, the US may isolate
itself from traditional allies if it does not co-operate economically
with Beijing. If Chinese economic performance deteriorates
substantially, there is a risk that a balancing strategy invites a
hostile nationalist reaction. None of this is to say Washington does not
have valid concerns about China’s behaviour in the economic arena or to
deny that these should be pursued vigorously. It is to say that our
objective must continue to be mutual growth and prosperity.
如果世界的目标是抑制中国的经济表现，那么就不能指望与中国建立经济合作。正如习近平不久前在伦敦受到的盛情款待所表明的那样，如果美国不与北京建立经济合作，它或许会与传统的盟友渐行渐远。如果中国的经济表现大幅恶化，美国的平衡策略可能会引发充满敌意的民族主义反应。这并不是说华盛顿对中国在经济领域的表现的顾虑全是错误的，也不是否认应该大力推进合作。而是说，我们的目标必须继续锁定在共同增长和繁荣上。
Second, China faces fundamental economic policy choices in which the
whole world has a great stake. At a time when its economy is slowing and
its wealth-holders desire to diversify their assets abroad, it is
incoherent to favour both financial market liberalisation and exchange
rate appreciation, as some in the US do. The necessary reforms if China
is to grow sustainably and strongly over the next decade — such as
closing unprofitable state enterprises and limiting the ability of local
governments to borrow and build on a vast scale — will surely take a
toll on growth in the short run. This will reduce demand for imports
from the rest of the world and raise China’s trade surplus.
第二，中国正面临着基本经济政策上的抉择，而这将对整个世界产生重大影响。在当前中国经济放缓、中国财富所有者希望向海外进行资产多样化之际，既支持中国金融市场自由化又希望人民币汇率走强（像美国一些人一样）是不合逻辑的。如果中国想在未来十年持续强劲增长，必要的改革——比如关停不盈利的国企、对地方政府大举借贷大兴土木进行限制——无疑会对短期内的增长造成影响。这将会削减中国从世界其他地区进口的需求，增加中国的贸易顺差。
Reasonable policy dialogue requires a recognition of the tensions
between short and long ter m, and national and global interests. The
world is likely to benefit from recognising that its deepest interests
lie in China pursuing more not less reform, even at the expense of
modest reductions in its contribution to global demand over the next
couple of years, and possibly more exchange-rate depreciation than we
would prefer.
理智的政策对话需要认识到短期利益与长期利益、国家利益与全球利益之间的冲突。认识到下面这一点对世界可能有好处：世界最大的利益在于中国追求更多改革，即使是以未来数年中国对全球需求的贡献适当降低、以及可能出现超出我们接受范围的汇率贬值为代价。
Finally, there is the question of institutional architecture. The
emergence over the past year of a major Asian trade integration effort
(the TPP) in which China does not participate, and a major financial
institution (the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) in which the US
does not participate, is hardly auspicious. Worse, the US failure to
provide congressional approval for China’s voting power in the IMF to
rise above that of Belgium’s suggests a troubling indifference to global
reality. Institutions in which both powers have appropriate roles are
urgently necessary if the global economy is to get back on track.
最后一点，机构架构的问题。过去一年出现了一项中国未参与的重要亚洲贸易一体化努力——TPP，以及一家美国未参与的重要金融机构——亚投行(AIIB)，这很难说是什么吉祥之兆。更糟糕的是，美国国会未能批准让中国在国际货币基金组织(IMF)的投票权上升至超过比利时的改革，此举显示出对全球现状令人不安的漠视。如果全球经济想要回到正轨，那么就迫切需要中美两国均拥有恰当角色的机构。
In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, John Maynard Keynes asserted
the primacy of economics, observing: “the perils of the future lie not
in frontiers and sovereignties but in food, coal and transport”. His
call for strong polices directed at promoting mutual pros-perity and
co-operation went un-heeded, with catastrophic consequences. Today, the
perils of the future have much to do with China’s rise and with the
worlds of commerce and economics. Let us hope that we find the wisdom to
manage them well. 在《和平的经济后果》(The Economic Consequences of the
Peace)一书中，约翰?梅纳德?凯恩斯(John Maynard
Keynes)断言了经济的首要地位，并评论道：“未来的危险不在于边境和主权，而在于食物、煤炭和运输”。他呼吁推出强有力的政策以促进共同繁荣和合作，却无人理睬，这导致了灾难性的后果。如今，未来的风险与中国崛起以及商业和经济领域紧密相关。让我们希望，我们能够发现妥善处理它们的智慧。
The writer is Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a
former US Treasury secretary 本文作者为哈佛大学(Harvard)查尔斯?W?艾略特大学教授(Charles W.
Eliot University Professor)，曾任美国财政部长
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