新兴市场外国直接投资普遍下滑 FDI collapses across emerging markets

青岛希尼尔翻译咨询有限公司整理发布  2015-9-18

　　青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com）2015年9月18日获悉,  With economic growth stalling — or in some cases plummeting — in many of the world’s developing countries, foreign direct investment appears to be following suit. In times of economic uncertainty, companies tend to seek out safe havens and will forfeit the growth opportunities that emerging markets present if these markets start to look unstable or sluggish. There are early signs that this trend could be at work.

由于全球很多发展中国家的经济增长陷于停滞（一些国家甚至出现严重滑坡），外国直接投资(FDI)似乎也在追随这一趋势。在经济不明朗时期，企业往往会寻找安全的避难所，如果新兴市场开始看起来不稳定或低迷，它们还会放弃这些市场提供的增长机遇。早期迹象显示，这种趋势可能已经存在。

According to figures from fDi Markets, an FT data service, 97 of 154 countries typically classed as emerging markets have experienced declines in capital expenditure on greenfield investment projects in the first six months of this year compared with the same time period last year. (Eleven of the 154 countries did not have verifiable greenfield projects recorded last year so were excluded from the comparison.)

根据英国《金融时报》数据服务机构fDi Markets的数据，今年头6个月，在154个一般列为新兴市场的国家中，有97个国家的绿地投资项目资本支出较去年同期出现下滑。（在这154个国家中，有11个去年没有录得可证实的绿地项目，因此被排除在外。）

In 25 of the 97 countries showing negative growth, capital expenditure collapsed to zero. Another 42 saw dramatic declines of 50 per cent or more; a further 22 saw drops of between 20 and 50 per cent between January-June 2014 and January-June 2015.

在这97个绿地投资项目资本支出负增长的国家中，有25个国家的资本支出锐降至零。从2014年上半年到今年上半年，另外42个国家的资本支出下降50%甚至更多；另有22个国家的资本支出下滑幅度介于20%至50%之间。

FDi has identified 61 developing countries that attracted more than $500m in greenfield investment in the first half of last year. Of those, 47 saw relative declines in the first half of this year. The fallers include some of the world’s major FDI markets, such as China (down 26 per cent), Brazil (-65 per cent) and Russia (-46 per cent), as well as a roll call of important economies in every region, from Hong Kong (-35 per cent), Malaysia (-49 per cent), Philippines (-48 per cent) and South Korea (-64 per cent) in Asia; to Poland (-21 per cent) and Romania (-17 per cent) in eastern Europe; Ghana (-56 per cent), Kenya (-44 per cent) and Nigeria (-23 per cent) in Africa; and Argentina (-6 per cent), Chile (-33 per cent), Colombia (-56 per cent) and Peru (-84 per cent) in Latin America. Mexico, while witnessing a decline, has fared better than most of its regional competitors with only a 3 per cent drop.

去年上半年，fDi确认有61个发展中国家吸引了逾5亿美元的绿地投资。今年上半年，其中有47个国家的绿地投资出现相对下滑。下滑的国家包括一些全球大型外国直接投资市场，例如中国（下滑26%）、巴西（下滑65%）和俄罗斯（下滑46%），以及每个地区的重要经济体，从亚洲的香港（下滑35%）、马来西亚（下滑49%）、菲律宾（下滑48%）和韩国（下滑64%）；到东欧的波兰（下滑21%）和罗马尼亚（下滑17%）；非洲的加纳（下滑56%）、肯尼亚（下滑44%）和尼日利亚（下滑23%）；以及拉美的阿根廷（下滑6%）、智利（下滑33%）、哥伦比亚（下滑56%）和秘鲁（下滑84%）。尽管墨西哥也出现投资下滑，但其表现好于多数区域竞争对手，仅下滑3%。

Violence and security fears are hitting the inflows of countries such as Iraq (-76 per cent) and Yemen (-100 per cent) and causing a ripple effect around the region, impacting neighbouring Jordan (-83 per cent) Lebanon (-97 per cent) and Turkey (-25 per cent). Meanwhile, oil producers Angola (-99 per cent) and Saudi Arabia (-52 per cent) have posted declines after large investments by French energy group Total had boosted the 2014 FDI figures for both countries.

暴力和安全担忧正影响伊拉克（下滑76%）和也门（下滑100%）等国家的资本流入，并在该地区产生连锁反应，影响到临近的约旦（下滑83%）、黎巴嫩（下滑97%）和土耳其（下滑25%）。与此同时，产油国安哥拉（下滑99%）和沙特阿拉伯（下滑52%）的资本流入也出现下滑，此前法国能源集团道达尔(Total)的巨额投资曾在2014年提振了两国的外国直接投资。

Although the negative percentages outweigh the positives, there are some growth stories still to be found. India, one of the star performers of 2014, has managed to more than double its midyear investment levels, attracting $30bn by the end of June compared with $12bn in the first half of last year. Indonesia has seen a 62 per cent increase in investment to nearly $14bn, and South Africa, 77 per cent to $3bn. Vietnam, another FDI star of 2014, is on track to match if not exceed its blockbuster year, attracting $7.5bn just as it had by the midway point of last year. The United Arab Emirates is also on par with its previous performance, attracting $3.5bn.

尽管投资下滑国家数量超过投资增长国家，但仍能找到一些增长故事。2014年表现最为亮眼的国家之一印度成功将其年中投资水平扩大逾一倍，截至今年6月底吸引投资300亿美元，而去年上半年为120亿美元。印尼的外国直接投资增长62%，至近140亿美元，南非增长77%，至30亿美元。2014年的另一个外国直接投资明星是越南，该国即将赶上甚至超过去年的强劲表现，同去年上半年一样，该国今年上半年已吸引了75亿美元的投资。阿联酋也与去年的表现持平，吸引了35亿美元的投资。

It may be too soon to speak yet of a genuine emerging markets FDI crash. Investment announcements sometimes pick up steam in the second half of the year. One or two large projects can inflate or skew capital investment data, some of which are based on estimates. And because greenfield investment decisions are deliberate, slow and long term, reading too much into the tea leaves about short-term trends can be risky. However, the sheer number of developing countries showing a clear downturn in year-on-year investment through the first two quarters of the year suggests that the broad trend will be extremely difficult if not impossible to reverse in the final two quarters.

现在就下结论说新兴市场确实出现外国直接投资暴跌可能还为时尚早。投资的公布有时会在下半年升温。一两个大项目就可能扩大资本投资数据或者令数据出现偏差，其中一些数据基于估值。关于绿地项目投资的决定是审慎、缓慢且着眼长期的，因此过分研究短期趋势可能是有风险的。然而，今年上半年，如此多发展中国家的投资较去年同期出现明显下滑，这表明，要想在今年下半年逆转这一总体趋势将极其困难，甚至是不可能的。