中国债券市场近期飙升（中英双语）
青岛希尼尔翻译咨询有限公司（www.sinosenior.com）整理发布 2015-10-16
青岛希尼尔翻译公司（www.sinosenior.com）2015年10月16日了解到：随着中国股市内爆推动了对安全资产的需求，同时中国央行放松货币政策以稳定日益放缓的经济，最近几周中国债券市场悄然飙升。China
bonds surge as investors seek safety
China’s bond market has quietly surged in recent weeks as the implosion
of its stock market drives demand for safe assets and the central bank
eases monetary policy to stabilise a slowing economy.
5年期国债收益率已从4月初的3.47%降至昨日的2.92%。超过一半的降幅是8月下旬以来出现的。
Yields on five-year government bonds have fallen from 3.47 per cent in
early April 今年前8个月，中国国债发行总量共计12.6万亿元人民币（合2万亿美元），较去年同期增长63%。
to 2.92 per cent yesterday. More than half of the decline has been since
late August.
昨天拍卖的10年期国债的收益率达到自2008年以来的最低水平。一些投资者担心，中国债券市场——仅次于美国和日本的全球第三大债市——已经过热。
Gross bond issuance totalled Rmb12.6tn ($2tn) in the first eight months,
up
“今年以来我们一直看涨债券，但是对债券持续上涨的预测很可能需要看到经济增长进一步恶化或是更激进的宽松政策，而这似乎是不太可能的，”美银美林(Bank
of America Merrill Lynch)驻香港的利率策略师陈扬表示。
63 per cent on the same period a year ago.
自从中国股市泡沫破裂以来，投资者一直在寻找更安全的投资选项。从触及7年来最高水平的6月12日到8月下旬，上证综指(Shanghai
Composite Index)暴跌43%，尽管自此之后上证指数略有反弹。
China auctioned 10-year government bonds yesterday at the lowest yield
since 2008. Some investors are worried that the debt market, the
third-largest behind the US and Japan, has overheated.
与此同时，曾经一直是中国储户投资首选的国内房地产市场，陷入了供大于求的困境，房价不断下滑。
“We have been bullish bonds throughout the year, but looking ahead a
sustained rally in bonds will probably require a further deterioration
in economic growth or more aggressive easing, which does not seem to be
likely,” Yang Chen, rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in
Hong Kong, wrote recently.
Since China’s equity bubble burst investors have been seeking safer
options. The Shanghai Composite index tumbled 43 per cent from a
seven-year high on June 12 through to late August, though it has
recovered slightly since. “股市如此，大量资金无处可去，只能流入债券市场，”中泰证券(Zhongtai
Securities)的固定收益分析师罗文波称。
Meanwhile, the property market, long the investment of choice for
savers, has been mired in oversupply amid falling prices.
货币宽松以及低通胀正在压低利率。自去年11月以来，中国央行5次下调利率，3次下调银行存款准备金率。
“With the stock market like this, a lot of money has nowhere to go. It
can only flow into the bond market,” said Luo Wenbo, fixed-
分析师认为，昨天公布的表明9月通胀进一步放缓的数据，可能会促使央行进一步放宽货币政策。
income analyst at Zhongtai Securities.
Monetary easing and low inflation are pushing down interest rates. The
central bank has cut rates five times since last November and slashed
the ratio of deposits that banks must hold in reserve three times.
公司债券的表现甚至比国债更为强劲，5年期国债与5年期3A级公司债券之间的息差已从6月的逾100个基点缩小至周二的75个基点。
Analysts reckon figures published yesterday, showing a further slowing
in inflation in September, could prompt further easing.
Corporate bonds have gained even more strongly than government bonds,
with the spread between five-year government bonds and five-year
corporate bonds rate AAA shrinking from more than 100 basis points in
June to 75bp on Tuesday. 市场参与者称，最大的需求来源与银行向客户推销的理财产品和结构性票据有关。
Market participants say the biggest source of demand relates to
wealth-management products, structured notes that banks market 据行业研究组织CN
Benefit表示，今年前六个月，以固定收益为基础的产品占据所有产品的30%左右，但是在第三季度这一比例上升至60%。
to clients. 基于债券的共同基金也出现了资金流入。基金管理公司正利用较低的短期借款成本加大投资组合的杠杆率。
Fixed income-based products accounted for about
据中国央行数据显示，6月底，境外投资者持有的国内债券总值达7640亿元人民币。
30 per cent of all products in the first six months of the year, but
that rose to 60 per cent in the third quarter, according to CN Benefit,
a research group that tracks the industry. Ma Nan补充报道
Bond-based mutual funds have also recorded inflows. Fund managers are
taking advantage of low short-term borrowing costs to add leverage to
portfolios.
According to data from the central bank, foreigners held Rmb764bn of
onshore bonds at the end of June.
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